Quantitative Methods in Defense and National Security 2007

Quantitative Assessment of the National Security Strategy
LTC Michael J. Kwinn, Jr., (United States Military Academy), fm9536@usma.edu, and
MAJ Steven Gauthier, (United States Military Academy), fm9536@usma.edu


In this paper we present a novel application of a widely practiced business application to the assessment of the National Security Strategy published by the White House in 2006. We use Value Focused Thinking (VFT) methodology to develop a hierarchical approach to assessment. This application of VFT was initially applied during Operation Enduring Freedom by the lead author as a member of a team sent to Afghanistan in August 2003.

We have taken the lessons learned from this deployment and the subsequent maturing of this approach and applied it to the National Security Strategy. After a short discussion of the approach and the process, we show the developed hierarchy and the measures for success which are taken directly from the NSS document.

This assessment methodology provides a means to indicate success or failure of the NSS over a period of time as it is a trend tool vice a picture of the state of the NSS. Though there is great reluctance to use quantitative methods for assessment of policy, this approach shows great promise in providing indicators of success or failure for the policy or policies.

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